Author Archives: fibbinarchie

Daily Fib 29 December 2017

Last Fib of the Year
Happy New Year to Everyone!

EURUSD managed to break through 1.1965 and is now flirting with the 1.2000 level. Through this eyes 1.2033 and 1.2092, the highs of Sept 20 and Sept 8 respectively.
Support is now seen at 1.1965, 1.1920/00 and, whilst 1.2000 holds, the current fib retracements at 1.1880, 1.1847 and 1.1814. A breach of the latter brings the pivotal support at 1.1717 into view.

EURUSD_20171229

Daily Fib 20 December 2017

EURUSD currently around 1.1874.
Through 1.1909 paves the way for 1.1940 and 1.1965.
To the downside immediate support is seen at 1.1860 with 1.1825/1.1775/1.1725 further below.
Screen Shot 2017-12-20 at 21.24.07

Daily Fib 19 December 2017

Target for the long trade was reached at 1.1847.
EURUSD now looking to break higher seeking 1.1877/1.1940/1.1980
Failure to break 1.1860/77 sees immediate support at 1.1800/1.1775/1.1730
A breach of 1.1712 will certainly draw the bears

Screen Shot 2017-12-19 at 19.14.20

Been a while

Wow, didn’t realise it had been so long!

Time to get back into the swing of things and start posting daily updates on the EURUSD.

Bitcoin looks interesting, anyone on that lottery?

Daily Fib 27 November 2013

I’m away for the remainder of the week but will update when I can.  This is an update at 21:20 26 November based on events of today:

Technical Analysis

EURUSD broke thru’ 1.3540 early in European trade and this level remained supportive until USD Consumer Confidence figures provided a jittery blip.  The ensuing dip to 1.3520 was soon reversed with the pair testing recent highs 1.3574 during the US session.

As the 50% Oct high to Nov low and the high of Nov, 1.3564/78 is significant.  It has been tested three times in the last week and a break to the upside would certainly be a positive sign, with stops triggered and a possible retest of the level before buyers step in to resume the recent bullish theme.

Failure to take out this level brings 1.3540 back into view thru’ which opens the gate to the recent interim lows at 1.3500/3490. With the subsequent scent of 1.3400 in the air, the bears just might be tempted.

Support and resistance can be seen at

  • R6: 1.3900 approx trendline down from high of Jul 2008 thru’ Apr 2011
  • R5: 1.3832 61.8% May high to July low and high of Oct
  • R4: 1.3700/17 Significant figure and 78.6% Oct high to Nov low
  • R3: 1.3627/50 61.8% Oct high to Nov low and former support
  • R2: 1.3600 Significant figure
  • R1: 1.3564/78 50% Oct high to Nov low and Nov high
  • S1: 1.3550/40 Resistance thru’ Nov – now support
  • S2: 1.3500/3490 Sig Fig, former res [38.2% Oct high - Nov low] now support and 38.2% of rise from 20 Nov
  • S3: 1.3470 38.2% Nov low to Nov high plus cluster fibs of rise from 20 Nov
  • S4: 1.3435 50% Nov low to Nov high and 78.6% of rise from Nov 20
  • S5: 1.3400 Low of Nov 20
  • S6: 1.3350

Events of the Day

Trade Ideas and Strategies

The following trade ideas have been identified using the simple moving average strategy described in Strategies:

  • There may be ideas on the Alerts and Signals page, but I am unable to qualify them due to being away.

Daily Fib 26 November 2013

I’m away for the remainder of the week but will update when I can.  This is an update at 20:30 25 November based on events of today:

Technical Analysis

Yesterday saw EURUSD making a high at 1.3556 and then trail down to 1.3490.  This is in line with the analysis of finding support at 1.3500 having taken out stops beneath.  Look for today’s low to hold to recapture 1.3540 for a move higher.  To the downside, a breach of the low at 1.3490 brings 1.3400 back onto the radar, a breach of which would invite the bears back out to play.

Support and resistance can be seen at

  • R4: 1.3700
  • R3: 1.3627/50 61.8% Oct high to Nov low and former support
  • R2: 1.3600
  • R1: 1.3564/78 50% Oct high to Nov low and Nov high
  • R1: 1.3540 Resistance thru’ Nov – now pivotal
  • S2: 1.3500/3490 Sig Fig, former res [38.2% Oct high - Nov low] now support and 38.2% of rise from 20 Nov
  • S3: 1.3470 38.2% Nov low to Nov high plus cluster fibs of rise from 20 Nov
  • S4: 1.3435 50% Nov low to Nov high and 78.6% of rise from Nov 20
  • S5: 1.3400 Low of Nov 20
  • S6: 1.3350

Events of the Day

  • 1000: UK Inflation Report Hearings
  • 1330: US Sept Building Permits
  • 1330: US Sept Housing Starts
  • 1400: S&P/CS HPI
  • 1500: US CB Consumer Confidence
  • 1500: US Richmond Manufacturing Index
  • 2145: NZD Trade Balance

Trade Ideas and Strategies

The following trade ideas have been identified using the simple moving average strategy described in Strategies:

  • There may be ideas on the Alerts and Signals page, but I am unable to qualify them due to being away.

Daily Fib 25 November 2013

Technical Analysis

Friday saw EURUSD attempting the recent highs at 1.3580 only to tail off at 1.3560 down to its current price at 1.3540.

Support and resistance can be seen at

  • R4: 1.3700
  • R3: 1.3627/50 61.8% Oct high to Nov low and former support
  • R2: 1.3600
  • R1: 1.3564/78 50% Oct high to Nov low and Nov high
  • S1: 1.3540 Former resistance thru’ Nov – now pivotal
  • S2: 1.3500 Sig fig, former res [38.2% Oct high - Nov low] now support and 38.2% of rise from 20 Nov
  • S3: 1.3470 38.2% Nov low to Nov high plus cluster fibs of rise from 20 Nov
  • S4: 1.3435 50% Nov low to Nov high and 78.6% of rise from Nov 20
  • S5: 1.3400 Low of Nov 20
  • S6: 1.3350

Events of the Day

  • 0745: France Nov Services Sentiment
  • 0745: France Nov Business Climate Index
  • 0745: France Nov Manufacturing Sentiment
  • 0800: Spain Oct PPI
  • 0930: UK BBA Lending Data
  • 1500: US Oct NAR Pending Home Sales
  • 1530: US Nov Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey

Trade Ideas and Strategies

Friday’s trade ideas resulted in the following:

  1. NZDJPY H1 trade idea: short below 82.88, stop above 83.22 and targeting 82.38: target met.

Today

The following trade ideas have been identified using the simple moving average strategy described in Strategies:

  • No trade ideas in alert state.  Will update during the UK trading day

Daily Fib 22 November 2013

Technical Analysis

From yesterday’s Fib, holding the key 1.3420/00 area proved to be pivotal. EURUSD has risen to test 1.3489, 50% retracement of the leg down from Nov 19 high, and should now look to test 1.3500/10.

Support and resistance can be seen at

  • R7: 1.3700
  • R6: 1.3627/50 61.8% Oct high to Nov low and former support
  • R5: 1.3600
  • R4: 1.3564/78 50% Oct high to Nov low and Nov high
  • R3: 1.3540 78.6% Nov 19 high to Nov 21 low
  • R2: 1.3510 61.8% Nov 19 high to Nov 21 low
  • R1: 1.3490 50% Nov 19 high to Nov 21 low
  • S1: 1.3420/00 38.2% Jul low to Oct high, former resistance through Aug and 61.8% Nov low to Nov high
  • S2: 1.3350
  • S3: 1.3300/3290 Nov low and 50% Jul low to Oct high
  • S4: 1.3165 61.8% Jul low to Oct high
  • S5: 1.3100 Sept low
  • S6: 1.3000 78.6% Jul low to Oct high and low of 15 Jul

Through 1.3500/10 should resume the bullish theme for a look at the recent highs at 1.3580. Failure to recapture 1.3500, however, will be seen as bearish and paves the way for a revisit of 1.3420.

Events of the Day

  • 0700: Germany Q3 GDP
  • 0830: ECB President Draghi speaking [plane permitting!]
  • 0900: Germany Nov IFO Business Climate Index
  • 0900: Italy Sept Retail Sales
  • 1200: Extraordinary Meeting of Eurogroup Finance Ministers
  • 1200: Germany Merkel and Greek Samaras Press Conference
  • 1340: Kansas City Fed Pres George speaking
  • 1400: Belgium Nov BNB Business Survey
  • 1715: Fed Res Gov Tarullo speaking

Trade Ideas and Strategies

Yesterday’s trade ideas resulted in the following:

  1. AUDNZD H1 trade idea: long above 1.1297, stop below 1.1256 and targeting 1.1358: stopped out
  2. AUDNZD H1 trade idea: long above 1.1289, stop below 1.1254 and targeting 1.1342. Another chance to enter for those that missed yesterday’s alert: stopped out

Today

The following trade ideas have been identified using the simple moving average strategy described in Strategies:

  • NZDJPY H1 trade idea: short below 82.88, stop above 83.22 and targeting 82.38: target met