Monthly Archives: November 2013

Daily Fib 27 November 2013

I’m away for the remainder of the week but will update when I can.  This is an update at 21:20 26 November based on events of today:

Technical Analysis

EURUSD broke thru’ 1.3540 early in European trade and this level remained supportive until USD Consumer Confidence figures provided a jittery blip.  The ensuing dip to 1.3520 was soon reversed with the pair testing recent highs 1.3574 during the US session.

As the 50% Oct high to Nov low and the high of Nov, 1.3564/78 is significant.  It has been tested three times in the last week and a break to the upside would certainly be a positive sign, with stops triggered and a possible retest of the level before buyers step in to resume the recent bullish theme.

Failure to take out this level brings 1.3540 back into view thru’ which opens the gate to the recent interim lows at 1.3500/3490. With the subsequent scent of 1.3400 in the air, the bears just might be tempted.

Support and resistance can be seen at

  • R6: 1.3900 approx trendline down from high of Jul 2008 thru’ Apr 2011
  • R5: 1.3832 61.8% May high to July low and high of Oct
  • R4: 1.3700/17 Significant figure and 78.6% Oct high to Nov low
  • R3: 1.3627/50 61.8% Oct high to Nov low and former support
  • R2: 1.3600 Significant figure
  • R1: 1.3564/78 50% Oct high to Nov low and Nov high
  • S1: 1.3550/40 Resistance thru’ Nov – now support
  • S2: 1.3500/3490 Sig Fig, former res [38.2% Oct high - Nov low] now support and 38.2% of rise from 20 Nov
  • S3: 1.3470 38.2% Nov low to Nov high plus cluster fibs of rise from 20 Nov
  • S4: 1.3435 50% Nov low to Nov high and 78.6% of rise from Nov 20
  • S5: 1.3400 Low of Nov 20
  • S6: 1.3350

Events of the Day

Trade Ideas and Strategies

The following trade ideas have been identified using the simple moving average strategy described in Strategies:

  • There may be ideas on the Alerts and Signals page, but I am unable to qualify them due to being away.

Daily Fib 26 November 2013

I’m away for the remainder of the week but will update when I can.  This is an update at 20:30 25 November based on events of today:

Technical Analysis

Yesterday saw EURUSD making a high at 1.3556 and then trail down to 1.3490.  This is in line with the analysis of finding support at 1.3500 having taken out stops beneath.  Look for today’s low to hold to recapture 1.3540 for a move higher.  To the downside, a breach of the low at 1.3490 brings 1.3400 back onto the radar, a breach of which would invite the bears back out to play.

Support and resistance can be seen at

  • R4: 1.3700
  • R3: 1.3627/50 61.8% Oct high to Nov low and former support
  • R2: 1.3600
  • R1: 1.3564/78 50% Oct high to Nov low and Nov high
  • R1: 1.3540 Resistance thru’ Nov – now pivotal
  • S2: 1.3500/3490 Sig Fig, former res [38.2% Oct high - Nov low] now support and 38.2% of rise from 20 Nov
  • S3: 1.3470 38.2% Nov low to Nov high plus cluster fibs of rise from 20 Nov
  • S4: 1.3435 50% Nov low to Nov high and 78.6% of rise from Nov 20
  • S5: 1.3400 Low of Nov 20
  • S6: 1.3350

Events of the Day

  • 1000: UK Inflation Report Hearings
  • 1330: US Sept Building Permits
  • 1330: US Sept Housing Starts
  • 1400: S&P/CS HPI
  • 1500: US CB Consumer Confidence
  • 1500: US Richmond Manufacturing Index
  • 2145: NZD Trade Balance

Trade Ideas and Strategies

The following trade ideas have been identified using the simple moving average strategy described in Strategies:

  • There may be ideas on the Alerts and Signals page, but I am unable to qualify them due to being away.

Daily Fib 25 November 2013

Technical Analysis

Friday saw EURUSD attempting the recent highs at 1.3580 only to tail off at 1.3560 down to its current price at 1.3540.

Support and resistance can be seen at

  • R4: 1.3700
  • R3: 1.3627/50 61.8% Oct high to Nov low and former support
  • R2: 1.3600
  • R1: 1.3564/78 50% Oct high to Nov low and Nov high
  • S1: 1.3540 Former resistance thru’ Nov – now pivotal
  • S2: 1.3500 Sig fig, former res [38.2% Oct high - Nov low] now support and 38.2% of rise from 20 Nov
  • S3: 1.3470 38.2% Nov low to Nov high plus cluster fibs of rise from 20 Nov
  • S4: 1.3435 50% Nov low to Nov high and 78.6% of rise from Nov 20
  • S5: 1.3400 Low of Nov 20
  • S6: 1.3350

Events of the Day

  • 0745: France Nov Services Sentiment
  • 0745: France Nov Business Climate Index
  • 0745: France Nov Manufacturing Sentiment
  • 0800: Spain Oct PPI
  • 0930: UK BBA Lending Data
  • 1500: US Oct NAR Pending Home Sales
  • 1530: US Nov Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey

Trade Ideas and Strategies

Friday’s trade ideas resulted in the following:

  1. NZDJPY H1 trade idea: short below 82.88, stop above 83.22 and targeting 82.38: target met.

Today

The following trade ideas have been identified using the simple moving average strategy described in Strategies:

  • No trade ideas in alert state.  Will update during the UK trading day

Daily Fib 22 November 2013

Technical Analysis

From yesterday’s Fib, holding the key 1.3420/00 area proved to be pivotal. EURUSD has risen to test 1.3489, 50% retracement of the leg down from Nov 19 high, and should now look to test 1.3500/10.

Support and resistance can be seen at

  • R7: 1.3700
  • R6: 1.3627/50 61.8% Oct high to Nov low and former support
  • R5: 1.3600
  • R4: 1.3564/78 50% Oct high to Nov low and Nov high
  • R3: 1.3540 78.6% Nov 19 high to Nov 21 low
  • R2: 1.3510 61.8% Nov 19 high to Nov 21 low
  • R1: 1.3490 50% Nov 19 high to Nov 21 low
  • S1: 1.3420/00 38.2% Jul low to Oct high, former resistance through Aug and 61.8% Nov low to Nov high
  • S2: 1.3350
  • S3: 1.3300/3290 Nov low and 50% Jul low to Oct high
  • S4: 1.3165 61.8% Jul low to Oct high
  • S5: 1.3100 Sept low
  • S6: 1.3000 78.6% Jul low to Oct high and low of 15 Jul

Through 1.3500/10 should resume the bullish theme for a look at the recent highs at 1.3580. Failure to recapture 1.3500, however, will be seen as bearish and paves the way for a revisit of 1.3420.

Events of the Day

  • 0700: Germany Q3 GDP
  • 0830: ECB President Draghi speaking [plane permitting!]
  • 0900: Germany Nov IFO Business Climate Index
  • 0900: Italy Sept Retail Sales
  • 1200: Extraordinary Meeting of Eurogroup Finance Ministers
  • 1200: Germany Merkel and Greek Samaras Press Conference
  • 1340: Kansas City Fed Pres George speaking
  • 1400: Belgium Nov BNB Business Survey
  • 1715: Fed Res Gov Tarullo speaking

Trade Ideas and Strategies

Yesterday’s trade ideas resulted in the following:

  1. AUDNZD H1 trade idea: long above 1.1297, stop below 1.1256 and targeting 1.1358: stopped out
  2. AUDNZD H1 trade idea: long above 1.1289, stop below 1.1254 and targeting 1.1342. Another chance to enter for those that missed yesterday’s alert: stopped out

Today

The following trade ideas have been identified using the simple moving average strategy described in Strategies:

  • NZDJPY H1 trade idea: short below 82.88, stop above 83.22 and targeting 82.38: target met

 

Daily Fib 21 November 2013

Technical Analysis

EURUSD sold off to key support in the 1.3420/00 area and now languishes around 1.3430 ahead of the flash Manufacturing Services PMI at 0758.  Looking at the daily chart:

21-11-2013 06-24-58 EURUSDSupport and resistance can be seen at

  • R5: 1.3700
  • R4: 1.3627/50 61.8% Oct high to Nov low and former support
  • R3: 1.3600
  • R2: 1.3564/78 50% Oct high to Nov low and Nov high
  • R1: 1.3500
  • S1: 1.3420/00 38.2% Jul low to Oct high, former resistance through Aug and 61.8% Nov low to Nov high
  • S2: 1.3350
  • S3: 1.3300/3290 Nov low and 50% Jul low to Oct high
  • S4:  1.3165 61.8% Jul low to Oct high
  • S5: 1.3100 Sept low
  • S6: 1.3000 78.6% Jul low to Oct high and low of 15 Jul

Holding the key 1.3420/00 area is pivotal to today’s price action; to the downside further alleviates the bullish pressure and brings 1.3350 into play.  Beneath 1.3350 opens the path to the November lows at 1.3300

Events of the Day

  • 0758: Euro Flash Manufacturing Service PMI
  • 0930: UK Public Finances, BOE Capital Issuance, SMMT Auto Production
  • 1005: ECB President Draghi speaking
  • 1100: UK Nov CBI Industrial Trends Survey
  • 1300: St Louis Fed Res Bank President Bullard speaking
  • 1330: US Oct PPI 09 Nov Jobless Claims
  • 1358: Nov Markit Flash PMI
  • 1500: US Nov Philly Fed Survey
  • 1500: EMU Nov Flash Consumer Confidence
  • 1600: ECB Weidmann speaking

Trade Ideas and Strategies

Tuesday’s trade ideas resulted in the following:

  1. AUDNZD H1 trade idea: long above 1.1297, stop below 1.1256 and targeting 1.1358: in progress, stop@1.1210, limit@1.1398

Yesterday’s trade ideas panned out as:

  1. AUDNZD H1 trade idea: long above 1.1289, stop below 1.1254 and targeting 1.1342.  Another chance to enter for those that missed yesterday’s alert: in progress, stop@1.1240, limit@1.1340
  2. EURUSD H4 trade idea: long above 1.3575, stop below 1.3500 and targeting 1.3687: no trade
  3. USDCHF H4 trade idea: short below 0.9080, stop above 0.9128 and targeting 0.9008: notrade

Today

The following trade ideas have been identified using the simple moving average strategy described in Strategies:

  • No trade ideas in alert state.  Will update during the UK trading day

Daily Fib 20 November 2013

Technical Analysis

Again EURUSD spent most of yesterday above key 1.3500 with 1.3550 capping overhead.  An overnight foray through 1.3564 [50% Oct high to Nov low] met with resistance at 1.3578:

  • R4: 1.3700
  • R3: 1.3627/50 61.8% Oct high to Nov low and former support
  • R2: 1.3600
  • R1: 1.3564/78 50% Oct high to Nov low and Nov high
  • S1: 1.3540 Immediate support and former resistance throughout Nov
  • S2: 1.3500/3490
  • S3:  1.3470
  • S4: 1.3435
  • S5: 1.3400

EURUSD is now caught between 1.3540, former resistance, and 1.3564, 50% Oct high to Nov low.  Higher lows on H1 are suggestive of further upside.

A break and hold through 1.3564 maintains the bullish theme whereas through 1.3436 to the downside alleviates the bullish pressure and brings 1.3400/3350 into play.  Beneath 1.3350 opens the path to the November lows at 1.3300

Events of the Day

  • 0700: Germany Oct PPI
  • 0830: Bundesbank Thiele speaking
  • 0930: UK Nov BOE MPC Minutes, Oct CML Mortgage lending
  • 1330: US Oct CPI, Oct Retails and Food Sales
  • 1500: US Sept Business Inventories, Oct Existing Home Sales
  • 1500: New York Fed President Dudley Press Conference
  • 1710: St Louis Fed President Bullard interview
  • 1800: ECB Asmussen speech
  • 1900: US FOMC minutes Oct 29-30

Trade Ideas and Strategies

Yesterday’s trade ideas resulted in the following: :

  1. AUDCHF H1 trade idea: long above 0.8588, stop below 0.8557 and targeting 0.8634:  stopped out
  2. AUDNZD H1 trade idea: long above 1.1297, stop below 1.1256 and targeting 1.1358: in progress, stop@1.1210, limit@1.1398
  3. GBPAUD H1 trade idea: short below 1.7118, stop above 1.7184 and targeting 1.7019: stopped out
  4. USDJPY H1 trade idea: short below 99.48, stop above 99.92 and targeting 98.82: not filled

Today

The following trade ideas have been identified using the simple moving average strategy described in Strategies:

  1. AUDNZD H1 trade idea: long above 1.1289, stop below 1.1254 and targeting 1.1342.  Another chance to enter for those that missed yesterday’s alert.
  2. EURUSD H4 trade idea: long above 1.3575, stop below 1.3500 and targeting 1.3687
  3. USDCHF H4 trade idea: short below 0.9080, stop above 0.9128 and targeting 0.9008

Update 1845 GMT

The chart below shows the current status of the AUDNZD trade:

AUDNZD H1

AUDNZD H1

There is some headwind into the former support now resistance at 1.1310, but through which opens the way to 1.1380 area

Daily Fib 19 November 2013

Technical Analysis

EURUSD spent most of yesterday above key 1.3500 but still immediately capped by 1.3550 overhead:

  • R4: 1.3700
  • R3: 1.3626/50 61.8% Oct high to Nov low and former support
  • R2: 1.3600
  • R1: 1.3550/60 Nov  high and 50% Oct high to Nov low
  • S1: 1.3500 Immediate support
  • S2:  1.3450
  • S3: 1.3420
  • S4: 1.3390

An upside break through 1.3550 is needed to continue the bullish theme whereas through 1.3420 to the downside alleviates the bullish pressure and brings 1.3400/3350 into play.  Beneath 1.3350 opens the path to the November lows at 1.3300

Events of the Day

  • 0800: ECB Nowotny speaking
  • 0830: ECB Praet speaking
  • 0900: Italy Sept industial orders
  • 1000: Germany Nov ZEW survey
  • 1000: EMU Sept construction output
  • 1300: Bundesbank Dombrel speaking
  • 1330: US Q3-13 Employment Cost Index
  • 1915: Chicago Fed Reserve Bank Evans speaking
  • 2000: Obama remarks on the economy
  • 0000: Fed Reserve Bank Bernanke speaking

Trade Ideas and Strategies

The following trade ideas have been identified using the simple moving average strategy described in Strategies:

  1. AUDCHF H1 trade idea: long above 0.8588, stop below 0.8557 and targeting 0.8634
  2. AUDNZD H1 trade idea: long above 1.1297, stop below 1.1256 and targeting 1.1358
  3. GBPAUD H1 trade idea: short below 1.7118, stop above 1.7184 and targeting 1.7019
  4. USDJPY H1 trade idea: short below 99.48, stop above 99.92 and targeting 98.82

 

Daily Fib 18 November 2013

Technical Analysis

EURUSD remained in a 33 pip range overnight, 1.3474 – 1.3507 and is currently trading at 1.3496.  Immediate support and resistance levels are as follows:

  • R3: 1.3626/50 61.8% Oct high to Nov low and former support
  • R2: 1.3550/60 Nov  high and 50% Oct high to Nov low
  • R1: 1.3500 Immediate resistance at 38.2% Oct high to Nov low
  • S1:  1.3426
  • S2: 1.3400
  • S3: 1.3376/60

An upside break through 1.3550 is needed to continue the bullish theme whereas through 1.3420 to the downside alleviates the bullish pressure and brings 1.3400/3360 into play.

Events of the Day

  • 0900: EMU Sept current account
  • 1000: EMU Sept trade balance
  • 1400: US Sept Treasury int’l capital system
  • 1500: US Nov NAHB index

Trade Ideas and Strategies

Not much in the way of momentum in EURUSD at the moment but AUDCHF looks interesting:

AUDCHF H1 trade idea: long above 0.8599, stop below 0.8551 and targeting 0.8671

Daily Fib 17 November 2013

Welcome to the inaugural ‘Daily Fib‘ by Fibbinarchie.  Given that this is the first one, I think it is worthwhile looking at the overall bigger picture of EURUSD technically from a weekly perspective and then drill down into the lower timeframes.

Below is a weekly chart covering the price range going back to 2001:

Long term EURUSD

Long term EURUSD

From an outer perspective,  the 1.2030/2000 level has been very supportive since 2009 whereas the down trendline capping the highs in the same period is now resistive in the 1.3900/1.4000 zone.

This action of lower highs whilst maintaining a base of lows in the 1.2000 area makes me think that the EURUSD is being compressed and will, at some point over the next year, make a break out to the upside.  A breach of the 1.2000 will make me reconsider otherwise.

Expanding the weekly chart to examine the price action of 2013:

17-11-2013 17-21-44 EURUSD W12013 has seen EURUSD trading a sideways consolidation between 1.2750 and 1.3750.  The latter part of the year has seen a rising channel with a potential target in the range of 1.3750/1.4000.  As with all major resistance [and support] levels, it cannot be anticipated that the target zone will be broken immediately.  However, a break and retest would certainly entice the bulls back into the fray.

To the downside, a breach of 1.3000 opens the path to the 1.2750 support zone beneath which there is little in the way of support until the 1.2500 area.

To ascertain the potential price action in the coming days, I’ll take a look at the daily chart:

17-11-2013 19-46-05 EURUSD DThe breach of the upwards trendline since July 2013, followed by the test of the same trendline after the breach, might entice the bears into play.  However, the daily close above 1.3480 former support last Friday might be enough to ensure that the bulls get back on board.

Exploring this scenario further, the bulls would need to take hold of the reigns for a look at 1.3600/50 and regain the support of the upwards trendline since July 2013.  Successfully doing so would bring the 1.3800 zone back into play.  Having been supported by the 100 daily SMA for the last two bounces does lend some weight to this argument.

Failure to maintain 1.3480/3500 would certainly bring the bears out of their caves for a look at the 1.3300 November lows.  Through which opens up the path to 1.3160/3100 and then 1.3000.

Well, that’s the weekly look at EURUSD.  Let’s see what the Asian market has to bring overnight and I’ll provide the Daily Fib tomorrow morning.

Good trades and may the Fibs be with you!

Archie