Daily Fib 20 November 2013

By | November 20, 2013

Technical Analysis

Again EURUSD spent most of yesterday above key 1.3500 with 1.3550 capping overhead.  An overnight foray through 1.3564 [50% Oct high to Nov low] met with resistance at 1.3578:

  • R4: 1.3700
  • R3: 1.3627/50 61.8% Oct high to Nov low and former support
  • R2: 1.3600
  • R1: 1.3564/78 50% Oct high to Nov low and Nov high
  • S1: 1.3540 Immediate support and former resistance throughout Nov
  • S2: 1.3500/3490
  • S3:  1.3470
  • S4: 1.3435
  • S5: 1.3400

EURUSD is now caught between 1.3540, former resistance, and 1.3564, 50% Oct high to Nov low.  Higher lows on H1 are suggestive of further upside.

A break and hold through 1.3564 maintains the bullish theme whereas through 1.3436 to the downside alleviates the bullish pressure and brings 1.3400/3350 into play.  Beneath 1.3350 opens the path to the November lows at 1.3300

Events of the Day

  • 0700: Germany Oct PPI
  • 0830: Bundesbank Thiele speaking
  • 0930: UK Nov BOE MPC Minutes, Oct CML Mortgage lending
  • 1330: US Oct CPI, Oct Retails and Food Sales
  • 1500: US Sept Business Inventories, Oct Existing Home Sales
  • 1500: New York Fed President Dudley Press Conference
  • 1710: St Louis Fed President Bullard interview
  • 1800: ECB Asmussen speech
  • 1900: US FOMC minutes Oct 29-30

Trade Ideas and Strategies

Yesterday’s trade ideas resulted in the following: :

  1. AUDCHF H1 trade idea: long above 0.8588, stop below 0.8557 and targeting 0.8634:  stopped out
  2. AUDNZD H1 trade idea: long above 1.1297, stop below 1.1256 and targeting 1.1358: in progress, stop@1.1210, limit@1.1398
  3. GBPAUD H1 trade idea: short below 1.7118, stop above 1.7184 and targeting 1.7019: stopped out
  4. USDJPY H1 trade idea: short below 99.48, stop above 99.92 and targeting 98.82: not filled

Today

The following trade ideas have been identified using the simple moving average strategy described in Strategies:

  1. AUDNZD H1 trade idea: long above 1.1289, stop below 1.1254 and targeting 1.1342.  Another chance to enter for those that missed yesterday’s alert.
  2. EURUSD H4 trade idea: long above 1.3575, stop below 1.3500 and targeting 1.3687
  3. USDCHF H4 trade idea: short below 0.9080, stop above 0.9128 and targeting 0.9008

Update 1845 GMT

The chart below shows the current status of the AUDNZD trade:

AUDNZD H1

AUDNZD H1

There is some headwind into the former support now resistance at 1.1310, but through which opens the way to 1.1380 area