Daily Fib 21 November 2013

By | November 21, 2013

Technical Analysis

EURUSD sold off to key support in the 1.3420/00 area and now languishes around 1.3430 ahead of the flash Manufacturing Services PMI at 0758.  Looking at the daily chart:

21-11-2013 06-24-58 EURUSDSupport and resistance can be seen at

  • R5: 1.3700
  • R4: 1.3627/50 61.8% Oct high to Nov low and former support
  • R3: 1.3600
  • R2: 1.3564/78 50% Oct high to Nov low and Nov high
  • R1: 1.3500
  • S1: 1.3420/00 38.2% Jul low to Oct high, former resistance through Aug and 61.8% Nov low to Nov high
  • S2: 1.3350
  • S3: 1.3300/3290 Nov low and 50% Jul low to Oct high
  • S4:  1.3165 61.8% Jul low to Oct high
  • S5: 1.3100 Sept low
  • S6: 1.3000 78.6% Jul low to Oct high and low of 15 Jul

Holding the key 1.3420/00 area is pivotal to today’s price action; to the downside further alleviates the bullish pressure and brings 1.3350 into play.  Beneath 1.3350 opens the path to the November lows at 1.3300

Events of the Day

  • 0758: Euro Flash Manufacturing Service PMI
  • 0930: UK Public Finances, BOE Capital Issuance, SMMT Auto Production
  • 1005: ECB President Draghi speaking
  • 1100: UK Nov CBI Industrial Trends Survey
  • 1300: St Louis Fed Res Bank President Bullard speaking
  • 1330: US Oct PPI 09 Nov Jobless Claims
  • 1358: Nov Markit Flash PMI
  • 1500: US Nov Philly Fed Survey
  • 1500: EMU Nov Flash Consumer Confidence
  • 1600: ECB Weidmann speaking

Trade Ideas and Strategies

Tuesday’s trade ideas resulted in the following:

  1. AUDNZD H1 trade idea: long above 1.1297, stop below 1.1256 and targeting 1.1358: in progress, stop@1.1210, limit@1.1398

Yesterday’s trade ideas panned out as:

  1. AUDNZD H1 trade idea: long above 1.1289, stop below 1.1254 and targeting 1.1342.  Another chance to enter for those that missed yesterday’s alert: in progress, stop@1.1240, limit@1.1340
  2. EURUSD H4 trade idea: long above 1.3575, stop below 1.3500 and targeting 1.3687: no trade
  3. USDCHF H4 trade idea: short below 0.9080, stop above 0.9128 and targeting 0.9008: notrade

Today

The following trade ideas have been identified using the simple moving average strategy described in Strategies:

  • No trade ideas in alert state.  Will update during the UK trading day